035
AXPZ20 KNHC 081601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 103.3W AT 08/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND
105W. A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
LATE SATURDAY. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A VERY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 124.2W AT 08/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT DAY, BEFORE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, OCCURS ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON LATE SATURDAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT RACHEL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. INTERESTS IN EXTREME
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RACHEL.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS
AREA BY TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 14N97W, THEN RESUMES S
OF T.S. RACHEL NEAR 13N120W TO BEYOND 11N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 00N TO 10N E OF
110W, AND FROM 00N TO 11N W OF 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.5N 104.1W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 16.1N 104.9W
FRI MORNING, 16.9N 105.1W FRI EVENING, 17.6N 105.1W SAT MORNING,
18.7N 105.1W SAT EVENING, AND INLAND TO 19.7N 105.1W SUN MORNING.
SIMON WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 22.2N 105.6W EARLY MON. MEANWHILE,
RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.1N 124.3W THIS AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.0W FRI
MORNING, 22.9N 124.7W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.0N 122.8W SAT MORNING.
RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE ON SAT AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NE. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY SUN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER AND INLAND OVER EARLY MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE FOUND BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL LOCATED OVER THE NE WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY RACHEL CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE AREA FROM 17N TO 28N
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.4N 124.9W
THIS EVENING, 22.7N 125.1W FRI MORNING, 23.4N 123.9W FRI EVENING,
25.1N 121.4W SAT MORNING, 28.4N 118.3W SAT EVENING, AND INLAND
TO 32.8N 115.3W SUN MORNING. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INLAND NEAR 42.4N 110.2W EARLY MON.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ROUGHLY
THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS STARTING FRI AND CONTINUE INTO
SUN.
GR
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