286
WTPZ35 KNHC 082032
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 PM CST THU OCT 08 2026
..SIMON ALMOST A HURRICANE
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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