647
WTPZ33 KNHC 082051
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT THU OCT 08 2026
..RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND HEAD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 124.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
RACHEL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE A
SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, OCCURS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
RACHEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT
APPROACHES NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ43 KNHC.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
WIND: THE RISK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS INCREASING
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN
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