648
WTPZ43 KNHC 082052
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT THU OCT 08 2026
THE CONVECTION FOR RACHEL HAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEGRADE AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO HINDER THE CYCLONE. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM AND NOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE AROUND -45 C. WHILE THE
MOST RECENT TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS STILL
4.0/65 KT, THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE
OF 32-60 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/3 KT. THE STORM IS
BEING STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO TURN RACHEL TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS
ADVISORY, THEREFORE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED
IN THAT DIRECTION, FAVORING THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS DUE TO COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR. THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE STORM, WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING,
HOWEVER RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN
IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON THE
HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
RACHEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS DEEP CONVECTION WANES,
HOWEVER SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL RETURN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS
AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF RACHEL ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH OVER THE WEEKEND, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA BY TONIGHT.
2. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3. RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
4. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 22.4N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.0N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 30.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page