212
WTNT34 KNHC 082057
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAIAS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
400 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
..HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ISAIAS NOW HAS 100 MPH WINDS
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 89.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO THE BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE, FL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JEFFERSON/PLAQUEMINES PARISH LINE, LA TO WEST OF OCEAN SPRINGS, MS
* EAST OF BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST. ISAIAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS SHOULD REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO INDIAN PASS, FL...5-7 FT
MOBILE BAY...5-7 FT
INDIAN PASS, FL TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL...4-6 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA TO OCEAN SPRINGS, MS...3-5 FT
STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL TO SUWANNEE RIVER, FL...3-5 FT
SUWANNEE RIVER, FL TO YANKEETOWN, FL...2-4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAINFALL: FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN
COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SURF: SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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