665
WTPZ35 KNHC 090238
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 PM CST THU OCT 08 2026
..SIMON BECOMES A HURRICANE
..RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.6N 104.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO, TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD
MOTION BY EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF SIMON
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA
AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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