497
WTPZ33 KNHC 090244
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT THU OCT 08 2026
..RACHEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.6N 125.5W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
RACHEL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INTENSITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ43 KNHC.
RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
WIND: THE RISK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.
FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS
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