416
WTPZ43 KNHC 090245
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT THU OCT 08 2026
RACHEL'S DEEP CONVECTION IS BARELY HANGING ON. WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN SOME RE-INVIGORATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, RACHEL HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DEFINED BY WEAK
AND BROKEN BANDS SURROUNDING ITS INNER CORE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB GAVE RACHEL A 2.5/3.5,
REFLECTING A WEAKENING TREND, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1830 UTC ALSO
REVEALED MAX WINDS AT AROUND 43 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA, RACHEL'S
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.
INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 295/5 KT. RACHEL'S FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE
PICKED UP BY A CUTOFF LOW DESCENDING FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INITIATE ITS ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN,
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING RACHEL'S TRACK FORECAST IS THE INTERACTION OF A MUCH
BROADER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN AND ENVELOP THE WESTERN
US OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR GIVING RACHEL A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN ITS MOTION AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN TO FALL IN LINE CLOSER TO HCCA AND GDMI
GUIDANCE, WHICH NOW FAVORS A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AS RACHEL
APPROACHES LAND COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING RACHEL CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THUS RACHEL'S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DISSIPATING, BEFORE INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
POTENTIALLY REINTRODUCES CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF ADDED INSTABILITY
ALOFT. THIS WILL COME WITH THE CONSEQUENCE OF ADDED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, HOWEVER, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RACHEL'S VORTEX FURTHER
DEGRADING. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST DEPICTS FURTHER
WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEREAFTER
TO COMPENSATE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL BURST OF CONVECTION. RACHEL,
HOWEVER, IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL EITHER RIGHT
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT
EVEN AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, RACHEL IS STILL CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG ITS PATH.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH OVER THE WEEKEND, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
2. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3. RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
4. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 22.6N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.4N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 28.2N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 32.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 37.4N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS
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