293
AXPZ20 KNHC 090326
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 104.6W
AT 09/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
SIMON WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 125.5W AT 09/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. RACHEL'S FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY, WHICH WILL INITIATE ITS
ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE WEEKEND. RACHEL
AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 08N86W TO 11N97W, THEN
RESUMES NEAR 14N128W TO BEYOND 11N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 90W,
FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W, AND FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 15.6N 104.6W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.1N 105.0W FRI MORNING,
16.9N 105.2W FRI EVENING, 17.8N 105.3W SAT MORNING, 19.0N 105.3W
SAT EVENING, INLAND TO 20.4N 105.3W SUN MORNING, AND MOVE INLAND
AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.6N 105.3W SUN EVENING.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS NEAR 22.6N 125.5W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.7N 125.3W FRI MORNING,
23.4N 124.0W FRI EVENING, 25.0N 121.2W SAT MORNING, 28.2N 118.3W
SAT EVENING, 32.4N 115.7W SUN MORNING, AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AND MOVE TO 37.4N 112.6W SUN EVENING. RACHEL WILL DISSIPATE LATE
MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 03N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 03N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WILL MOVE TO 22.7N 125.3W FRI MORNING,
23.4N 124.0W FRI EVENING, 25.0N 121.2W SAT MORNING, 28.2N 118.3W
SAT EVENING, 32.4N 115.7W SUN MORNING, AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AND MOVE TO 37.4N 112.6W SUN EVENING. RACHEL WILL DISSIPATE LATE
MON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RACHEL AND A RIDGE
OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W BY
FRI NIGHT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SAT. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page