020
WTNT34 KNHC 090552
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAIAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
..BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FLYING INSIDE ISAIAS
..STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.8N 88.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO THE BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE, FL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JEFFERSON/PLAQUEMINES PARISH LINE, LA TO WEST OF OCEAN SPRINGS, MS
* EAST OF BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN, FL
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 25.8
NORTH, LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. ISAIAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAIAS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, ISAIAS WILL REMAIN
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE AND NOAA DROPSONDE DATA.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL TO INDIAN PASS, FL...5-7 FT
INDIAN PASS, FL TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL...4-6 FT
OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL...4-6 FT
MOBILE BAY...4-6 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA TO OCEAN SPRINGS, MS...3-5 FT
STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL TO SUWANNEE RIVER, FL...3-5 FT
SUWANNEE RIVER, FL TO YANKEETOWN, FL...2-4 FT
YANKEETOWN, FL TO EGMONT KEY, FL...1-3 FT
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...1-3 FT
MORGAN CITY, LA TO MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA...1-2 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING IN COASTAL
AREAS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SURF: SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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