485
WTPZ33 KNHC 090856
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2026
..RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY NOW ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 124.9W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
RACHEL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: THE RISK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.
FORECASTER GIBBS
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