032
AXPZ20 KNHC 090902
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 104.5W AT 09/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 103W AND
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W. SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 124.9W AT 09/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. RACHEL AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N94W, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 14N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 06N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W, AND
FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 15.8N 104.5W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
978 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.1N 104.7W THIS AFTERNOON, 16.7N
104.9W SAT MORNING, 17.6N 105.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.6N 105.1W SUN
MORNING, INLAND TO 19.9N 105.3W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 21.4N 105.4W
MON MORNING. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING
INLAND NEAR 23.7N 106.0W EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL IS NEAR 22.7N 124.9W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT,
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO
23.0N 124.4W THIS AFTERNOON, 24.1N 122.4W SAT MORNING, 26.5N
119.3W SAT AFTERNOON, 30.8N 116.5W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 35.3N
114.2W SUN AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 03N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 03N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 23.0N 124.4W THIS
AFTERNOON, 24.1N 122.4W SAT MORNING, 26.5N 119.3W SAT AFTERNOON,
30.8N 116.5W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 35.3N 114.2W SUN AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RACHEL AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN
128W AND 135W BY TONIGHT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ON SAT. LARGE SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR
AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
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