023
WTPZ35 KNHC 091138
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
600 AM CST FRI OCT 09 2026
...SIMON FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 104.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE
OF SIMON IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. SIMON IS
FORECAST TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES (130 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
JALISCO AND NAYARIT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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