966
WTNT34 KNHC 091150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAIAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
..ISAIAS ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.0N 87.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO THE BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE, FL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JEFFERSON/PLAQUEMINES PARISH LINE, LA TO WEST OF OCEAN SPRINGS, MS
* EAST OF BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN, FL
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST. ISAIAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAIAS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS MORNING
AND REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SANTA ROSA/OKALOOSA COUNTY LINE, FL TO GRAYTON BEACH, FL...6-9 FT
DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL TO SANTA ROSA/OKALOOSA COUNTY LINE, FL...5-7 FT
GRAYTON BEACH, FL TO INDIAN PASS, FL...4-7 FT
INDIAN PASS, FL TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL...4-6 FT
STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL TO SUWANNEE RIVER, FL...3-5 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA TO DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL...3-5 FT
MOBILE BAY...3-5 FT
SUWANNEE RIVER, FL TO YANKEETOWN, FL...2-4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREAS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS.
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO EXPECTED, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: A TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT IN COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, GEORGIA, AND
THE CAROLINAS.
SURF: SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
FORECASTER BERG
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