966
WTPZ35 KNHC 091446
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 AM CST FRI OCT 09 2026
...SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
..PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 104.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
MITA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SIMON IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD, WITH THE CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THIS EVENING AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
JALISCO AND NAYARIT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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