218
AXPZ20 KNHC 091553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 104.7W AT 09/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SIMON IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD,
WITH THE CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THIS EVENING AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY. SIMON IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, JALISCO AND
NAYARIT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 124.6W AT 09/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST MOTION, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 10N86W TO 13N94W, THEN
RESUMES NEAR 14N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 13N E OF 90W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 00N TO 08N W OF 90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 104.8W THIS
EVENING, 17.2N 104.9W SAT MORNING, 18.2N 105.0W SAT EVENING,
19.4N 105.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 20.7N 105.4W SUN EVENING, AND
21.9N 105.6W MON MORNING. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
WHILE MOVING INLAND NEAR 23.6N 106.2W EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 23.4N 123.6W THIS EVENING,
25.1N 121.0W SAT MORNING, 28.5N 118.1W SAT EVENING, INLAND TO
33.3N 116.0W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 38.1N 114.0W SUN EVENING, AND
DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 03N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 03N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 23.4N
123.6W THIS EVENING, 25.1N 121.0W SAT MORNING, 28.5N 118.1W SAT
EVENING, INLAND TO 33.3N 116.0W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 38.1N
114.0W SUN EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RACHEL AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW FORECAST
AREA WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W BY TONIGHT. THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SAT. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GR
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