415
WTNT34 KNHC 091756
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAIAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 87.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCEAN SPRINGS, MS TO THE BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE, FL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JEFFERSON/PLAQUEMINES PARISH LINE, LA TO WEST OF OCEAN SPRINGS, MS
* EAST OF BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN, FL
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ISAIAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD
MOTION ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH (195
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAIAS IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL THIS EVENING.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL,
AND THE STORM IS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES (335 KM). A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH (76 KM/H) WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT DAUPHIN ISLAND, ALABAMA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
AL/FL BORDER TO GRAYTON BEACH, FL...6-9 FT
GRAYTON BEACH, FL TO INDIAN PASS, FL...4-7 FT
INDIAN PASS, FL TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL...4-6 FT
DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL TO AL/FL BORDER...4-6 FT
STEINHATCHEE RIVER, FL TO SUWANNEE RIVER, FL...3-5 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA TO DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL...3-5 FT
LOWER MOBILE BAY...3-5 FT
SUWANNEE RIVER, FL TO YANKEETOWN, FL...2-4 FT
UPPER MOBILE BAY...2-4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
NOW BEGINNING. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AS FAR AS 100 MILES FROM THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS.
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: A TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT IN COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS.
SURF: SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BERG
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