052
WTPZ33 KNHC 092043
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE U.S/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
THE SAN DIEGO/ORANGE COUNTY LINE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
RACHEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A GENERAL
NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH RAPID
WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.
FORECASTER KELLY
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