601
AXPZ20 KNHC 092206
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 104.7W AT 09/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER, EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SIMON IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD, WITH THE
CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. SIMON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS EVENING
AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, JALISCO AND NAYARIT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED
BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 124.0W AT 09/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST
AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
ON SUNDAY. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 09N90W TO 12N97W, THEN
RESUMES NEAR 14N124W TO BEYOND 08N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO
08N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 05N W OF 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 104.9W SAT
MORNING, 17.5N 105.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.6N 105.1W SUN MORNING,
INLAND TO 20.0N 105.3W SUN AFTERNOON, 21.4N 105.5W MON MORNING,
AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.8N 105.8W
MON AFTERNOON. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING INLAND NEAR 24.6N 106.4W TUE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 122.4W SAT MORNING, 26.7N 119.4W SAT
AFTERNOON, 30.9N 117.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 36.4N 115.0W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 04N, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AS
NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOW A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 12N AND W
OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 122.4W
SAT MORNING, 26.7N 119.4W SAT AFTERNOON, 30.9N 117.2W SUN MORNING,
INLAND TO 36.4N 115.0W SUN AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS
ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW,
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON WHILE DISSIPATING. LARGE
SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GR
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