620
WTNT34 KNHC 100245
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAIAS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
..ISAIAS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
..DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADS INLAND
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 86.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF OCEAN SPRINGS, MS, HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL, HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE STORM SURGE WATCH EAST OF SUWANNEE RIVER, FL HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE, FL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAY/GULF COUNTY LINE TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ISAIAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, BUT ISAIAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY EVEN AFTER IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL...3-5 FT
AUCILLA RIVER, FL TO SUWANNEE RIVER, FL...2-4 FT
MOBILE BAY...2-4 FT
SUWANNEE RIVER, FL TO YANKEETOWN, FL...1-3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LA TO DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL...1-3 FT
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...1-3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100
MILES FROM THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL: FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS.
FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS.
SURF: SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES, MEXICO, AND WESTERN CUBA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page