539
WTNT44 KNHC 100246
TCDAT4
HURRICANE ISAIAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL AS A 90-KT HURRICANE AT 0130 UTC NEAR DESTIN,
FLORIDA. SINCE THAT TIME, THE RADAR STRUCTURE OF THE STORM HAS
CONTINUED TO DEGRADE AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISRUPTS THE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, EGLIN AFB (KEVX) RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DAMAGING, GUSTY WINDS ARE PERSISTING IN THE
RESIDUAL NORTHERN EYEWALL AND IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS FARTHER INLAND AND
LOSING ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
ISAIAS IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H WHILE IT
CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
NOW THAT THE STORM IS INLAND, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND WELL INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE GUST
FACTORS IN THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE
FIRST 24 H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND,
ALABAMA, TO SUWANNEE, FLORIDA WHERE A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
2. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A SAFE ROOM TO RIDE OUT
THE STORM AND PREPARE FOR LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES.
3. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WESTWARD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA, SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
ITEMS, AVOID DRIVING HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, PREPARE FOR POWER
OUTAGES, AND BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TREES.
4. ISAIAS WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE. LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
5. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE EAST OF THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 30.8N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 32.7N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 36.9N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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