401
AXPZ20 KNHC 100256
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 104.6W AT 10/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, JALISCO AND NAYARIT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 123.3W AT 10/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH RACHEL AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RACHEL AND ITS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY
RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS
WELL AS MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 12N95W, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 15N126W TO BEYOND 11N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 16.8N 104.6W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105
KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952
MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 104.7W SAT MORNING, 18.2N 104.9W
SAT EVENING, 19.6N 105.0W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 21.0N 105.1W SUN
EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.4N 105.4W MON MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS
NEAR 23.8N 123.3W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 25.3N
121.0W SAT MORNING, 28.9N 118.1W SAT EVENING, INLAND TO 33.9N
116.0W SUN MORNING, AND DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. EXPECTED
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 02N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 18N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN
LONG PERIOD NW, SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON WHILE
DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S
OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
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