010
WTPZ35 KNHC 100836
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 AM CST SAT OCT 10 2026
..SIMON STILL QUICKLY INTENSIFYING
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 104.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
MITA TO EL ROBLITO, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIA TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA
* PUNTA MITA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIMON IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE AT 1700 UTC
TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS SOON AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SOON AS SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
JALISCO AND NAYARIT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS
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