872
AXPZ20 KNHC 100859
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 104.6W AT 10/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135
KT FORECAST. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS THE HURRICANE
MOVING INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND JALISCO.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, JALISCO AND
NAYARIT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 121.4W AT 10/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 17 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH RACHEL AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RACHEL AND ITS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N93W, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 14N126W TO BEYOND 09N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 17.2N 104.6W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125
KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942
MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 17.8N 104.7W THIS AFTERNOON, 18.8N 104.9W
SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 20.0N 105.1W SUN AFTERNOON, INLAND TO
21.7N 105.3W MON MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 23.1N 105.6W MON AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE TUE
MORNING. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS NEAR 24.2N 121.4W AT
2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 26.6N 119.0W THIS
AFTERNOON, 31.0N 116.6W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 36.0N 114.1W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 02N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 18N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON
WHILE DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
AL
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