553
WTPZ33 KNHC 101452
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 119.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE U.S/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
THE SAN DIEGO/ORANGE COUNTY LINE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS
* NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM PUERTO LIBERTAD TO PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H). A NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT RAPID WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AFTER RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MEXICO BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL,
WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL
FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.
FORECASTER BERG
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