578
WTPZ35 KNHC 101454
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 AM CST SAT OCT 10 2026
..SIMON A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH 150-MPH WINDS
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION SHORTLY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS
POSSIBLE TODAY, AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB (27.70 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THESE WINDS
SPREADING NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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