590
AXPZ20 KNHC 101552
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 104.8W AT 10/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
938 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS
POSSIBLE TODAY, AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO
60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 21 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 30N E OF 121W. A NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
BY SUNDAY MORNING. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN
INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST
WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 10N97W, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 13N120W TO BEYOND 10N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 130W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 01N TO 11N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON AND RACHEL, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 18.1N 105.0W THIS
EVENING, 19.1N 105.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 20.4N 105.4W SUN
EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N
105.4W MON MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 23.0N 105.5W MON EVENING, AND DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE,
WILL MOVE TO 28.2N 117.5W THIS EVENING, INLAND TO 33.0N 115.3W
SUN MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
38.5N 112.5W SUN EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 02N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AND MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 18N AND W
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON
WHILE DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page