344
WTPZ33 KNHC 102048
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..RACHEL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 118.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE U.S/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
THE SAN DIEGO/ORANGE COUNTY LINE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS
* NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM PUERTO LIBERTAD TO PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH (48 KM/H). A
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL
REMNANTS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL
IS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MEXICO BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL,
WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL
FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
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