550
WTPZ43 KNHC 102049
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RACHEL CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM. CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW AND HAS BECOME FURTHER SHEARED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A
1731 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 48 KT LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHEAST, OR 025/26 KT.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED, AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGE IN THE
STEERING FLOW IS DUE TO THE STORM'S INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
WAS NUDGED EASTWARD INITIALLY, BUT OTHERWISE CLOSELY MIRRORS THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST HCCA AID.
RACHEL HAS UNDERGONE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, LIKELY DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DEGRADE FURTHER GIVEN ITS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
RACHEL IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INLAND JUST AFTER 12 H AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY 24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
2. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
3. RACHEL AND ITS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
4. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING IN
SOME AREAS, WITH OBSERVED WATER LEVELS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1.5 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH RACHEL COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDES AND ALREADY ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 27.0N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 30.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 36.3N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
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