165
AXPZ20 KNHC 102203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 104.8W AT 10/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO
21N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. SIMON HAS RESUMED A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND ON MONDAY. SIMON
IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, BUT
SIMON IS STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. RAPID WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE BY MONDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 118.3W AT 10/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NE OF CENTER FROM 28N TO 31N E OF 120W. A NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ESPECIALLY
AFTER RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL IS LIKELY
TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING. RACHEL WILL
BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL,
WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL
FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07.5N78W TO 08N83W TO 11N91W,
THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N124W TO BEYOND 09N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 100W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W,
AND FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON AND RACHEL, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT
WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 104.9W SUN
MORNING, 19.4N 105.1W SUN AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 20.8N 105.2W MON
MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.9N
105.2W MON AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.8N 105.1W TUE MORNING, AND DISSIPATE TUE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 30.4N 116.3W SUN MORNING,
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 36.3N 114.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUN AS
RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GUSTY WINDS TO MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE
MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AND MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, FRESH TO STRONG
N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED BETWEEN RACHEL AND A RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 128W
AND 134W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATES ROUGH SEAS IN THE
8 TO 10 FT RANGE S OF 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES,
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W ON MON WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S
OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GR
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