310
WTPZ35 KNHC 110232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 PM CST SAT OCT 10 2026
...EYEWALL OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON NEARING THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 104.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
ANTICIPATED, BUT SIMON IS STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. RAPID WEAKENING
COULD OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB (27.41 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SOON AS LATER TONIGHT WITH THESE WINDS
SPREADING NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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