431
WTPZ45 KNHC 110233
TCDEP5
HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 PM CST SAT OCT 10 2026
THE COMPACT CORE OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON IS INCHING TOWARD
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS ONLY ABOUT 30 N MI OFF
THE COAST, AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT. THE MAJOR HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE GETTING STRONGER AND HAS
A DISTINCT AND SMALL EYE, SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC AND INTENSE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 135 KT, NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS, AND
THE DATA THEY COLLECT WILL BE VERY HELPFUL TO BETTER ASSESS SIMON'S
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
SIMON HAS BEEN CRAWLING NORTHWARD, WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 360/4 KT. A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT, AND THE MAJOR
HURRICANE WILL EITHER MAKE LANDFALL OR SKIRT THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN
SHOWING WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR OR NOT. REGARDLESS, SIGNIFICANT
OR CATASTROPHIC WIND, SURGE, AND RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE OF SIMON
REACHES THE COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH LAND, AND IT COULD WEAKEN AT A MUCH FASTER PACE IF IT
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF
HOW MUCH LAND SIMON WILL INTERACTS WITH, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CATASTROPHIC WIND AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG A PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO, AND A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 18.2N 104.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 19.1N 105.0W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 12/0000Z 20.1N 105.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 12/1200Z 21.1N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 13/0000Z 22.0N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 13/1200Z 23.0N 105.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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