630
WTPZ33 KNHC 110243
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
...RACHEL SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT TURNS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 116.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE U.S/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
THE SAN DIEGO/ORANGE COUNTY LINE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS
* NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM PUERTO LIBERTAD TO PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36
MPH (57 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS RACHEL MOVES
ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MEXICO BEGINNING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE
HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED,
WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.
FORECASTER PIERCE/ADAMS
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