765
AXPZ20 KNHC 110248
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 104.8W AT 11/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN
101W AND 111W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SLIGHTLY
FASTER NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT, AND THE MAJOR HURRICANE WILL EITHER MAKE LANDFALL OR
SKIRT THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, BUT SIMON IS STILL FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY. RAPID WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON
MOVES FULLY ONSHORE BY MONDAY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 116.5W AT
11/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 31 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF CENTER BETWEEN
116W AND 119W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. RACHEL AND ITS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. RACHEL WILL
BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG
THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH
THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N91W TO 13N100W,
THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N119W TO BEYOND 10N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL AND SIMON, SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN
83W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON AND POST TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY SIMON AND RACHEL, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT
WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 18.2N 104.8W AT 8 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB.
SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.1N 105.0W SUN MORNING, 20.1N 105.3W SUN
EVENING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.1N 105.5W MON
MORNING, 22.0N 105.6W MON EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 23.0N 105.9W TUE MORNING, AND DISSIPATE
TUE EVENING. MEANWHILE, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS NEAR
30.0N 116.5W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 31 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 34.5N
114.9W SUN MORNING, AND DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED N
OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL AND MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF RACHEL, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 20N W OF 115W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES,
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W ON MON WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S
OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
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