932
WTPZ35 KNHC 110559
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1200 AM CST SUN OCT 11 2026
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON APPROACHING THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED,
BUT SIMON IS STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. RAPID WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES (150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB (27.41 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE DROPSONDE DATA.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING EARLY TODAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SOON AS LATER TONIGHT WITH THESE WINDS
SPREADING NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH TODAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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