354
WTPZ33 KNHC 110855
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
...RACHEL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 116.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE TROPICAL WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS
* NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM PUERTO LIBERTAD TO PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH (41
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS RACHEL MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RACHEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN EASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE SPREADING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, TODAY AND TOMRROW.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL, WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THIS MORNING AS
THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
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