295
WTPZ35 KNHC 110856
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 AM CST SUN OCT 11 2026
...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST.
SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY AND MOVE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WHILE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING COULD OCCUR,
SIMON IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. RAPID WEAKENING
COULD OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB (27.47 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING SOON, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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