342
WTPZ43 KNHC 110857
TCDEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
RACHEL, CONSISTENT WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER INLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 010/22 KT, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WAS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WESTWARD BASED ON THE
GLOBAL MODELS. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND
DURING THE DAY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO WHERE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
2. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE POST TROPICAL REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING TODAY.
4. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING IN
SOME AREAS, WITH OBSERVED WATER LEVELS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1.5 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL
COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDES AND ALREADY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 32.9N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 11/1800Z 36.1N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
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