295
AXPZ20 KNHC 110913
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 105.2W AT 11/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 135 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 165 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
21N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY, BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD START SOON DUE TO THE
HURRICANE'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER, SIMON IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. CATASTROPHIC WIND AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG A PORTION OF THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED
BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W, NORTH OF 02N. THE WAVE
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N92W TO 12N101W,
THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO
05N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WIND FLOW AROUND THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO FORCING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 18.7N 105.2W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 930 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 105.4W THIS
AFTERNOON, 20.5N 105.7W MON MORNING, 21.2N 106.0W MON AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 106.3W TUE MORNING, INLAND
TO 23.2N 106.2W TUE AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY MON. WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. ELSEWHERE, DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN EAST PACIFIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AND MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 20N W OF
115W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES,
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS TODAY. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W ON MON WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
AL
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