019
WTPZ33 KNHC 111140
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 57A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
...RACHEL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...33.9N 115.4W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM N OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM
PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER, AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS AND NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM PUERTO
LIBERTAD TO PUERTO PENASCO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FROM ISLA SAN LUIS NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO PENASCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES,
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH
(41 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RACHEL
MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RACHEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA,
AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE SPREADING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, TODAY AND TOMORROW.
RAINFALL: RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
RACHEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?ERO.
SURF: WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WAVES,
COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES
COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY
RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.
FORECASTER KELLY
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