891
AXPZ20 KNHC 111559
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 105.3W AT 11/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 155 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE T
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER, EXCEPT 90
NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS IN A BAND TO THE E OF CENTER FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND
104W. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST ON
MONDAY. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WHILE SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR, SIMON IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS
A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IF
THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE OR INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
8 TO 16 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W, NORTH OF 05N. IT IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W TO 10N95W, THEN
RESUMES NEAR 12N120W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N130W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 95W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N TO
06N W OF 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LAST PUBLIC
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM AT 11/1500 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WIND FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORCING FRESH GAP WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED
BY HURRICANE SIMON, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.9N 105.6W
THIS EVENING, 20.5N 106.0W MON MORNING, 21.1N 106.4W MON
EVENING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.8N 106.8W TUE
MORNING, 22.5N 106.9W TUE EVENING, AND 23.0N 106.9W WED MORNING.
SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INLAND
NEAR 23.9N 106.4W EARLY THU. THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
LINGERING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN EAST PACIFIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AND MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES, THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS TODAY, REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
22N125W ON MON WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GR
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