233
WTPZ35 KNHC 111741
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1200 PM CST SUN OCT 11 2026
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE SIMON MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 105.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WHILE SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR, SIMON IS
STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVE VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR IF THE CORE OF SIMON MOVES FULLY ONSHORE OR INTERACTS WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES (130 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB (27.76 INCHES). AN
OCEAN DRIFTER VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF SIMON RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 945 MB (27.90 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
8 TO 16 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES LAND. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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