178
WTPZ35 KNHC 112054
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 PM CST SUN OCT 11 2026
...CORE OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURING...
..NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FARTHER UP THE MEXICAN COAST
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTH OF
EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY ON MONDAY. SIMON IS THEN FORECAST TO
TURN BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST BUT SIMON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMON IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD LATER
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES LAND. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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