749
AXPZ20 KNHC 112157
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 105.8W AT 11/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND
108W. THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRING.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE COAST
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING A
LITTLE FARTHER AWAY ON MONDAY. AT THAT TIME, THE CENTER OF SIMON
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST WEST OF THE MARIA ISLANDS MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SIMON IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST BUT SIMON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG HURRICANE AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SIMON IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO.
THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91W, NORTH OF 05N. IT IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N91W BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OR
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 08N91W TO 10N96W, THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N120W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 96W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N TO 06N W OF
96W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WIND FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE
WATERS. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
CALIFORNIA, AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY
HURRICANE SIMON, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.2N 106.1W MON
MORNING, 21.0N 106.6W MON AFTERNOON, 21.6N 106.9W TUE MORNING,
22.2N 107.1W TUE AFTERNOON, 22.8N 107.0W WED MORNING, AND 23.4N
106.6W WED AFTERNOON. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WHILE MOVING INLAND NEAR 24.0N 105.9W THU AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS
OF RACHEL, COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT, WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
LINGERING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EAST PACIFIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE
MIDDLE OR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 05N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
MAJOR HURRICANE SIMON.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE SIMON.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NE WATERS THROUGH TUE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GR
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