786
WTPZ35 KNHC 120248
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
800 PM MST SUN OCT 11 2026
..SIMON MOVING SLOWLY JUST OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
...THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES ALONG
THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 106.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO PLAYA PERULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AROUND MIDWEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST, BUT SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AFTER SIMON MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA BY WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES LAND. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI
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