002
AXPZ20 KNHC 120900
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 12/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, WHICH
COULD FURTHER DISRUPT THE HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN
SIDE. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91W/92W, NORTH OF 02N. LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE, AND THE SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W TO 13N100W,
THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 90W, AND
FROM 02N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO
NEAR 22N128W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS,
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY HURRICANE SIMON, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
958 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.6N 106.7W THIS AFTERNOON, 21.2N
107.1W TUE MORNING, 21.8N 107.3W TUE AFTERNOON, 22.3N 107.2W WED
MORNING, 22.9N 107.0W WED AFTERNOON, AND INLAND TO 23.4N 106.6W
THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
START TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. ROUGH SEAS
LINGERING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 08N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF 08N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 120W. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE WATERS
THROUGH TUE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
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