459
WTPZ35 KNHC 121141
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
500 AM MST MON OCT 12 2026
..SIMON CRAWLING NORTHWEST JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
..DANGEROUS WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 106.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AROUND MIDWEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, HOWEVER
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAPID
WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER SIMON MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES (95 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF JALISCO INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AND THE STATE OF SINALOA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES LAND. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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