006
WTPZ35 KNHC 121458
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
800 AM MST MON OCT 12 2026
..SIMON CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
...DANGEROUS WINDS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH FLOODING RAINS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTH TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY, BUT
SIMON COULD RE-INTENSIFY SOME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AFTER SIMON MOVES INLAND LATE THIS WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THE
STATE OF SINALOA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES LAND. NEAR
THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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