690
AXPZ20 KNHC 121534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
962 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
22N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS SINALOA ON THU. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, WHICH COULD FURTHER
DISRUPT THE HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. SIMON
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W-94W, NORTH OF 02N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
NEAR 08N93W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM
04N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 10N89W TO
1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W TO 13N101W, THEN RESUMES NEAR
19N114W TO 08N132W TO BEYOND 08.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 88W,
AND S OF 03.5N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
114W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ALONG 31.5N SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA NORTE TO BEYOND 24.5N120W,
AND HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY IN RECENT HOURS. FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 5 FT IN S SWELL FROM SIMON ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE. GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SW TO W WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA WATERS, BECOMING
MODERATE NW SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW
SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, WHILE SEAS
GENERATED FROM SIMON ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER
SOUTH OF BAJA BETWEEN 110W AND THE SW MEXICAN COAST. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND REMAIN JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST, REACHING NEAR
20.4N 106.8W THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR 20.9N 107.3W TUE MORNING, NEAR
21.3N 107.7W TUE AFTERNOON, NEAR 21.6N 107.7W WED MORNING, NEAR
22.2N 107.4W WED AFTERNOON, AND INLAND NEAR 24.1N 106.3W FRI
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND START TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL LINGERING WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA,
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXTEND OFFSHORE FROM THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO 93W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
93W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO S WINDS ARE JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS S OF 09N AND NEAR 90W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO S WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 08N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 85W THROUGH
EARLY WED. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W SHIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL
N OF 24N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MERGING NW
AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 24N W OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE WATERS
THROUGH TUE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
STRIPLING
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