115
WTPZ35 KNHC 121737
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1100 AM MST MON OCT 12 2026
..SIMON DRIFTING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
...DANGEROUS WINDS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH FLOODING RAINS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. SIMON IS DRIFTING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H), BUT IS FORECAST TO RESUME A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST
THEREAFTER, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY, BUT
SIMON COULD RE-INTENSIFY SOME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AFTER SIMON MOVES INLAND LATE THIS WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES (95 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THE
STATE OF SINALOA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON-GOING
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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